—Freeman Dyson

without consenting to lose sight of the shore

for a very long time.

—André Gide

—Ralph Waldo Emerson

But, in practice, there is.

—Jan L.A. van de Snepscheut

—马云

1. The Social Graph Will Become Portable

2. We Will Form Around “True” Social Networks: Quora, HackerNews, Namesake, StockTwits

3. Privacy Issues Will Continue to Cause Problems: Diaspora

4. Social Networking Will Become Pervasive: Facebook Connect meets Pandora, NYTimes

5. Third-Party Tools Will Embed Social Features in Websites: Meebo

6. Social Networking (like the web) Will Split Into Layers: SimpleGeo, PlaceIQ

7. Social Chaos Will Create New Business Opportunities: Klout, Sprout Social, CoTweet, awe.sm, (next gen) Buzzd

8. Facebook Will Not be the Only Dominant Player

Well, here’s a quick history primer that may change your mind:

• In 1998 the Department of Justice launched an anti-trust case against Microsoft.  People feared they were going to have a monopoly over the Internet due to “bunding” Internet Explorer with their operating system.  A bit laughable in 2010, just 12 years later.  These days people would sooner fear Apple than Microsoft, proving that reality is stranger than fiction.
• In April of 2000 there were fears that the AOL / Time Warner merger would create a monopoly on the Internet.  As you know, Time Warner eventually spun off AOL for peanuts.  AOL is in the process of rebuilding itself and emulating a little-known LA-based startup called Demand Media.  AOL seems to be doing great things to reinvent itself under the leadership of Tim Armstrong, but monopoly? Never.
• In May 2007 there were fears that Google was becoming a monopoly.  It controlled two-thirds of all Internet searches in the US and as we all knew—search was inevitably going to be the portal to finding information on the Internet.  Or was it?  We now know that social networking is having a profound impact on how we discover and share content online.
• So . . . now it is November 2010 and Facebook has more than 500 million users.  They have more page views than even Google.  More than 10% of all time on the web is now Facebook.  They have become a juggernaut in online advertising, pictures, video and online games.  And now they want to revolutionize email.  It is no doubt that the next decade belongs to Facebook. But the coincidence is that 10 years out will be 2020 and when we look back from that date I’m certain that people will also find a Facebook monopoly a bit laughable.